Bola Tinubu and Vice President Yemi Osinbajo may clash over the presidential ticket of the ruling All Progressives Congress. Who steps down for the other?
BY ANAYOCHUKWU AGBO
Trading officially opened in the stock of 2023 presidential election ticket in the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, on Monday, January 10 when Bola Tinubu, a former governor of Lagos State, visited President Muhammadu Buhari at the Aso Rock Villa and informed him of his ambition to run.
A few days later, Governor David Omahi of Ebonyi State, also visited Buhari and informed him of his intention to run for the ticket too. In the coming weeks and months, others will also throw their hats into the ring of the party’s presidential ticket bout.
Among all the contenders and pretenders, the one that will hurt and haunt Tinubu most, and probably twist his ‘lifelong ambition’ is the subterranean ambition of Osinbajo, his political protégé. Though the soft-spoken Vice President has consistently denied harbouring any intention to run for the top job, his support groups are gathering momentum across the Northern part of the country.
A clandestine meeting of the major support group was held in Kano on Saturday, January 15, 2022, and had supporters from the six geo-political zones in attendance. The meeting which had two sessions and lasted into the night set up structures for further mobilization and spread across the country. The meeting initially was scheduled for Kano in October but was aborted when Osinbajo denied any association with the group
Though the major movers of the movement were not in attendance for strategic reasons, a ranking minister from the Northwest is the heart of the push to draft Osinbajo into the race. Buhari said recently that he would not disclose his preferred successor now for fear the person could be ‘killed.’ That heightened the suspicion that Tinubu may not be the chosen one.
The Case Against Tinubu
Despite Osinbajo’s denial of interest those who want him to succeed Buhari are working hard behind the scene to actualize their agenda. Buhari may be undecided about who to back as his successor. This has increased the intrigues and scheming around the presidency.
A group does not want Tinubu to get the ticket because, according to them, he is alleged to be corrupt. He has too much money, will be too strong, and uncontrollable. He is also seen as unlikely to continue the war against corruption. These hawks feel that Osinbajo, a senior advocate of Nigeria, SAN, is ‘cleaner’ and more likely to continue the anti-corruption crusade than Tinubu, who had a protracted case at the Code of Conduct Tribunal, CCT. They also feel that Osinbajo being more of an intellectual may be easier to control in power than Tinubu, who they see as very shrewd and streetwise.
Osinbajo appears unwilling to face his former boss and benefactor in the race for Aso Rock. He is being very cautious about the proposal but the campaigners insist that “he is with us.” Seeing the support he is getting from some of Buhari’s horsemen, Osinbajo is likely to accept to be drafted into the race. Those who know him better say Osinbajo would not venture into the race without being sure of Buhari’s support.
Osinbajo’s Luck Riding on Tinubu
Osinbajo has been the biggest beneficiary of Tinubu’s personal misfortune in Nigeria’s delicate political equation. He became vice president in 2015 because Buhari refused to run a Muslim-Muslim ticket. Had he wanted to, Tinubu would have been the obvious choice. In 2011, Buhari said an alliance with Tinubu’s Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN, failed because the Asiwaju insisted on being the vice presidential candidate. Due to this stalemate, the consummation of the alliance had to wait till four years later in 2015 when all parties saw the need to make sacrifices to make the alliance work to dislodge the then ruling People’s Democratic Party, PDP.
The position of VP was conceded to Tinubu and he nominated Osinbajo to fill the slot. Osinbajo was Tinubu’s attorney general and commissioner for justice when he was governor of Lagos State. He was also a pastor with the Redeemed Christian Church of God, RCCG. It has been claimed that a prophecy in the church said Osinbajo would be president one day. Though in Nigeria some politicians who made similar claims failed to make it eventually, Osinbajo is closer to that goal now than he will ever be. He may well be persauaded to take a shot at it, especially when some forces appear to be working in his favour. One of his supporters argues that he has come of age and should take his chance.
However, it will be very difficult to dislodge the Asiwaju. And very untidy. He is a tactician, understands Nigeria and has the financial muscle to fund the project. He has so spread his tentacles within APC that trying to force him out may cost the ruling party the presidency in 2023. A similar event in PDP led to the decamping of some party stalwarts to APC and this tipped the political balance in the favour of APC. Consequently, PDP was dislodged in 2015. That critical mass has now dissipated and some of the actors returned to PDP.
It is now the end of another gyre and the political variables are in disarray. New alliances are being muted. New configurations are being permuted. So also are new treacheries. Unless Tinubu is dislodged through a free and fair primary, APC may reap a whirlwind. President Buhari’s belated assent to the Electoral Bill may help against Tinubu and others like him across the political parties who are rooting for free and fair primary. With the the amendment, parties can select their candidates through a smaller unit that can be manipulated or a free and fair paty primary where all the delegates vote for their preferred aspirant.
What are Osinbajo’s strenghts?
Can Osinbajo defeat Tinubu in the APC primary? The delegates from the Southeast and South-South will be fragmented among multiple aspirants, leaving the votes from the North and Southwest to determine the party’s flag bearer. The delegates from Lagos State will vote Tinubu. His hold on the southwest states has weakened considerably but he is still a heavyweight in the politics of Southwest. Osinbajo is not known to have built a strong political following in the grassroots. His mentor did that while he concentrated on doing his official job. If he goes against the Jagaban, he may likely struggle for support in the Southwest.
When the chips are down, Tinubu may take the Southwest. He has many political IOUs to cash. He will not get any reasonable traction from the Southeast, who are staking a strong claim for the presidency, and the South-South who may also be presenting strong candidates for the presidential primary.
So the North will determine who eventually wins the primary. Kano State is the most populous state in the North. This energy is not unknown to the two aspirants who are digging deep into the State. Governor Gaunduje of Kano State is a beautiful bride being courted by all the aspirants. Tinubu started his consultation with stakeholders in Kano. Osinbajo’s support group is strongly rooted in Kano.
Where then would Kano go? Tinubu or Osinbajo? Gaunduje is Buhari’s strong ally. This suggests that whoever gets the go-ahead from the President will likely get Kano’s votes. Tinubu likes political cross-networking but this may backfire in Kano as the other two heavyweights, former governors Musa Kwankwaso and Malam Ibrahim Shekarau, are not friends of the Buhari brand of politics. Kwankwaso is also a presidential aspirant in PDP and has lost the power of incumbency. Gaunduje is said to be interested in a tradeoff, given the electoral value of Kano but it is highly unlikely that either Osinbajo or Tinubu would concede the VP position to him.
Nasir El-Rufai used to be the standing VP designate for whoever will replace Buhari from the South with the understanding that after eight years he would take over as president. He is Buhari’s number one strategist. He was said to have urged Buhari back into the presidential race in 2015 after the failure of 2011. Mr President may want to pay him back with the VP slot. However, Rufai’s almost seven years regime in Kano has been crisis-ridden. His handling of the southern Kaduna senatorial district has not shown he is broadminded enough to better handle Nigeria’s diversity. He is also test-running a Muslim-Muslim ticket in Kaduna by choosing a Muslim deputy governor, instead of a Christian from the predominantly Southern Kaduna zone.
His critics argue that he is suggesting by running a Muslim-Muslim administration in Kaduna State that APC can run a Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket. This rankles with the Christian community and the southern part of the country. He may also be suggesting to Buhari who is against a Muslim-Muslim ticket that in 2023 Tinubu, a Southern Muslim can run with a Northern Muslim, which means that the Christian Aso Rock Chapel would lie fallow for eight years. This will be resisted by the Christian Association of Nigeria, CAN.
And this is another of the mountains that Tinubu must cross. The Northern Muslims cannot accept APC picking a Christian VP candidate from the North. And Christians from across the country cannot accept a Muslim-Muslim presidency. This is the biggest challenge for the Tinubu ticket.
And this tips the dice in favour of Osinbajo. Being a Christian from the South he can easily pair with any VP nominee from the North. Osinbajo appears to be Tinubu’s perfect character foil. He is what Tinubu is not and what the North wants.
For Tinubu, it is no retreat no surrender.
This is why they are urging Tinubu to remain in the backseat as a kingmaker. He says no. He insists that this time he wants to be the king. Speaking to State House Correspondents after his declaration of the intent visit to Buhari, Tinubu said, “I have the confidence, vision and capacity to build on the foundation by Buhari to turn around the fortunes of Nigeria.”
When asked, “What does it feel to be in the race with Osinbajo?” he declined comment and said he would not speak about individuals.
When asked, “What was Buhari’s response? He quipped, “That’s our business.”
Then he became evasive, “He is a democrat. He didn’t ask me to stop. He didn’t ask me not to attempt and pursue my ambition. It’s a lifelong ambition. So why do I expect him to say more than that? Why do you? You are running a democratic dispensation and you must adopt the principles and the values and virtues of democracy. That’s it,” he philosophised.
In other words, he expects Buhari to allow a free and fair contest and leave the game to the contestants. This is highly unlikely. Peter Odili, then governor of Rivers State, was poised to win the PDP presidential primary in Abuja when then-president, Olusegun Obasanjo, removed the carpet under his legs and hoisted Umar Yar’Adua, the governor of Katsina State. This time, it may not be as dramatic but the end may be the same. Or would Buhari ignore Tinubu’s coat of many colours and repay the alliance that made him president in 2015?
Tinubu and Oisnbajo met in Abuja on October 29, 2021. Tinubu had just returned from a medical trip to United Kingdom. While he was in London, Buhari visited him, which is pregnant with meangings. The details of Osinbajo’s meeting with Tinubu was not made public. However, some political analysts argued that it is a strong possiblility the two may have agreed to both go for the ticket. Head or tail, it is still the Yoruba nation.
Where will the pedulum eventually swing? Only time will tell.
